|
The basic assumptions of the Study Committee on
Ageing
The government bases its long-term budget strategy
notably on the estimates of the cost of population ageing drawn up by the
Study Committee on Ageing. Each year, it updates its estimates of the
long-term trend in social security expenditure. The basic assumptions it
uses are as follows:
ANNEX 2
Summary of the basic assumptions adopted by the Study Committee on population ageing |
|
Demographic scenario |
2030 |
2050 |
|
|
Birth rate |
1,69 |
1,74 |
|
|
Life expectancy at birth: male |
80,9 |
83,9 |
|
|
Life expectancy at birth: female |
86,4 |
88,9 |
|
|
Net migration |
17 062 |
17 127 |
|
Socio-economic scenario (by
sex and age group, impact of ageing on successive generations) |
|
|
Standard of education |
maintained at the latest recorded level |
|
|
Potential activity rate, male |
Modelled taking
account of the cohorts and the probable switching between
socio-demographic categories by sex and age group |
|
|
Potential activity rate, female |
|
|
Numbers leaving the labour force: disabled,
older unemployed workers, persons taking early retirement or
retirement |
|
Macro-economic scenario (long-term) |
|
|
Increase in productivity and annual wages per
capita |
1.75% per annum |
|
|
|
|
Structural unemployment rate in 2030 (including
older unemployed persons not seeking work) |
8 % |
|
|
|
|
Employment rate in 2030 (% of the population of working
age (15-64 years)) |
69,2 % |
|
|
|
Social policy scenarios (long-term) |
|
|
Pay threshold |
1,25% per annum |
|
|
|
|
Minimum entitlement per year worked |
1,25% per annum |
|
|
|
|
Linking of benefits to prosperity (general
scheme) |
0,5 % |
|
|
|
|
Linking of flat-rate benefits to prosperity |
1,0 % |
|
|
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