Belgian Stability Programme

2011-2014

Consolidation speeded up compared to the previous stability programme

The consolidation path for public finances proposed by the Belgian government under this stability programme speeds up the reduction in the deficit and the public debt.

Table 21 compares the growth assumptions and budget targets set under successive stability programmes.

As explained earlier, the government is committed to speeding up the consolidation if the environment is more favourable than expected. While economic growth was revised upwards in the short term (a cumulative figure of 0.7 % over the period 2010-2011), in view of the stronger and quicker revival in economic activity, in the medium term the outlook for growth is largely similar, hovering around 2.2 %.

The revised path means an improvement in the financing balance of 0.5 % of GDP in 2011 and 0.2 % over the period 2012-2014 compared to the previous stability programme.

This revision of the budget targets is also reflected in a quicker reduction in the public debt ratio, which should be down to 92.2 % of GDP in 2014, compared to 96.2 % under the previous stability programme. This faster reduction and the formation of budget surpluses in the medium term is essential not only to reassure the markets but above all in the context of population ageing.

TABLE 21 Comparison between the current stability programme and the January 2010 programme
% of GDP (in comparison with the 2010 stability programme)	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Real GDP growth
Previous update	1,7	1,7	2,2	2,1	2,2
Current update	2,1	2,0	2,3	2,1	2,3
Difference	0,4	0,3	0,1	0,0	0,1
General government net lending
Previous update	-4,8	-4,1	-3,0	-2,0	-1,0
Current update	-4,1	-3,6	-2,8	-1,8	-0,8
Difference	0,7	0,5	0,2	0,2	0,2
General government gross debt
Previous update	100,6	101,4	100,6	98,6	96,2
Current update	96,8	97,5	96,5	95,1	92,2
Difference	-3,8	-3,9	-4,1	-3,5	-4,0