Introduction
 

The recession which started in 2008 had a major impact on the global economic situation in 2009 and 2010. The recession is also expected to continue having noticeable repercussions in the coming years. However, a recovery is undeniably perceptible, e.g. in the rebound of global trade. While the Asian countries are clearly recording strong economic growth, the other industrialised countries are also seeing growth pick up, albeit more slowly in the second half of 2010 than in the first half of the year.

In the medium term, the assumption is that the industrialised world will see an economic recovery. For the euro area, annual growth is forecast to average 2.2 % in the medium term, thanks in particular to Germany’s sound economic performance. Nonetheless, the euro area’s economy remains vulnerable, especially in the wake of the debt crisis, the uncertainty on the financial markets and the stronger competition from emerging industries. Commodity price volatility is another major risk to economic growth.